The global lack of chips has clearly caused problems for the car industry. And it’s not over yet. According to a recent study, the shortage of semiconductors, which are primarily required for electric cars, is likely to continue until at least 2024.
According to a study, the shortage of semiconductors is likely to slow down the automotive industry until at least 2024. According to the study published by the management consultancy Alix Partners, electric cars need ten times as many chips as petrol or diesel cars, so that even increasing capacities are not sufficient for the entire requirement. “It won’t be until 2024 at the earliest that vehicle production will reach pre-pandemic levels.”
For this year, Alix expects global sales to fall to 78.9 million cars and light vans – from 80.3 million in 2021. The operating profit of the car manufacturers (Ebitda margin) has risen to an average of a good 12 percent of sales, those of the suppliers to almost 11 percent. Both would have made up for the decline in the Corona crisis to some extent. Because of the increase in raw material costs, suppliers did not benefit to the same extent from the rise in car prices. They are also under strong financial pressure because of the pricing power of car manufacturers, said industry expert Marcus Kleinfeld.
In addition to the lack of chips: Up to three times the price of raw material
According to the study, raw material prices for combustion engines have doubled since 2020 and those for electric cars have almost tripled. The cost of batteries is likely to rise again after years of decline. Lithium iron phosphate batteries could soon be used more frequently in low and medium-priced e-cars. Although they are heavier and offer less range than conventional batteries, they are cheaper and also do not depend on rare earths from unstable regions.
At the moment, cars are scarce and comparatively expensive. But by 2024 at the latest, the car manufacturers should be able to grant discounts again, said Alix director Fabian Piontek: “The effects of high inflation on consumer behavior are already foreseeable.”
In 2035, Europe is expected to be a global leader with purely electric vehicles accounting for 83 percent of all vehicles sold. In Germany it could be 96 percent. Globally, Alix expects 50 percent. However, a charging infrastructure must be created that not only enables homeowners with their own charging station to keep their vehicles operational, warned industry expert Christian Siekmann. “Even city dwellers without their own parking space need reliable charging points.”
