The moment of truth on the Brexit arrived, 873 days after the referendum. After days of waiting and postponements, the main ministers were invited one-by-one, on Tuesday evening, in Downing Street by Theresa May and to be aware of a draft agreement on the divorce with the european Union, before you discuss them together in an extraordinary council of ministers, on Wednesday in the early afternoon.
the white smoke is finally out of the Committee room in Brussels, where had holed up for weeks, in a “tunnel” of the negotiations, the envoy of the prime minister, Olly Robbins, and his team, with the european representative, Michel Barnier. The Twenty-Seven should bring their ambassadors in parallel, then their ministers of european Affairs, as of Wednesday afternoon, or the beginning of next week.
If the timing slips, the risk feared it is to fall into a zone of uncertainty that would increase the likelihood of an exit from the EU without agreement
Theresa May had announced the “outcome” close, in a speech in the City on Monday evening. The council of ministers usual Tuesday was held without grain to grind. But the members of the government had been instructed to be ready to return to Downing Street very soon. The negotiations have been strained in recent days, explaining these reports in the series. Theresa May would like to be able to sign a “deal” by the Twenty-Seven, during an extraordinary summit of heads of State and government in Brussels by the end of November, and then present it for ratification in the british Parliament before Christmas. If the timing slips, the risk feared it is to fall into a zone of uncertainty that would increase the likelihood of an exit from the EU without the agreement of march 29 (“no deal”).
In Brussels, we stated that the text of the study is “stabilized” but not yet “finalized”. The major breakthrough door, after months of deadlock, on the mechanism (“backstop” in the jargon) intended to prevent the return of a physical border between the british province of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, a member of the EU. The original solution of the Twenty-Seven of keeping Ulster in the european customs union had been refused by London, who proposed instead that this is the case for the whole of the United Kingdom, so as not to divide its territory inside.+
That or the “no deal”
Brussels has agreed, despite the reluctance of some member States, including Ireland, who see it as a preferential treatment for a third country. Dublin, very influential in the arm of iron between the EU and the United Kingdom, considered elsewhere on Tuesday that an agreement was far from being concluded. Theresa May will not fail to present this provision as a major concession had been captured from the Europeans, who are yet their account on the trading plan. A dispute subsisted these last few days on the duration of this plan, pending the conclusion of a treaty of free trade and the possibility to get out. The agreement would provide for an arbitration mechanism between the EU and the Uk to settle this point.
Theresa May hopes to sell his solution to his ministers as the best agreement possible. Several of them, including the one in charge of Brexit, Dominic Raab (even if negotiations are, in fact, largely carried out directly by Downing Street), rejected up to the present conditions were “totally unacceptable” imposed by the Europeans. For the leader of “Brexiters”, Boris Johnson, who has slammed the door of the government as early as July, the agreement “will mean a surrender of the United Kingdom”. “We will be doomed to remain in the customs Union under the regulatory control of Brussels”, a plague there. “If the question is “am I going to vote against this agreement?”, the answer is yes.” The same justifications raised by his younger brother, the less famous and partisan, to him, the retention in the EU, Oj Johnson, in resigning his turn in the government on Friday.
The obstacle of the government
on Tuesday, he called in the Times his colleagues to “take a step back on this process sorry and to ask whether the choice that is offered between the vassal (to the EU) and chaos (an exit without an agreement) can truly represent the national interest”. Four other ministers proeuropéens would think also to the resignation of even one or two “brexiters”. This is why Theresa May walking on eggshells. It will therefore seek to uproot the approval of his cabinet – even if some have to clog the nose – reminding him of the risks of a “no deal”. The “Brexiter” Jacob Rees-Mogg calls for them to block the agreement.
After the obstacle of the government, the first minister will have to go through that, even more uncertain, the ratification by the Parliament. The agitation is rising. The deputies were forced Tuesday the executive to publish the legal arguments of the withdrawal agreement from the EU – thousands of pages of documents – not to be put at the foot of the wall without knowledge of the facts. And the alternative presented of this agreement, long-awaited but already so maligned, and the chaos of a “no-deal”, is rejected by the partisans, many more – including Johnson Junior – a new referendum on the Brexit.