Since the submission of its draft agreement on the Brexit Wednesday, 14 November, Theresa May is plunged into a violent political turmoil. The first british minister is fighting once again to save his head in the face of a rebellion within the conservative Party and a series of resignations in government, which could announce other. In this complicated context, here are the main possible scenarios.
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• Theresa May remains on the offensive
The first minister faced a new “plot” in the conservative Party to overthrow it. If the tories manage to gather at least 48 members of their party (i.e. less than 15% of their group in the Parliament), Theresa May will face a vote of confidence. Several conservative mps claim that the account is almost good. If a majority of 315 mps of the party voted no confidence, it will be reversed. If the plot fails, such a vote could be held again before a year.
Through the voice of its spokesperson, Theresa May has already made it known that she would fight until the end. A victory would strengthen its position and would allow him to move his project to release agreement of the european Union to the scheduled date of march 29, 2019.
But if it is overturned, a new leader will be chosen from among two candidates selected by the members of the party, which would take weeks, or even months. This upsets the agenda of a Brexit as well as a new prime minister might want to reopen the negotiations on the Brexit with Brussels.
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• The agreement is adopted, Theresa May triumph
If the first minister survives a possible motion of no confidence, it will present the project of Brexit in the european Parliament. Mps must begin to examine the draft agreement of a divorce at the beginning of December, a time that european leaders have approved at a special summit on 25 November.
To be adopted, the agreement must be approved by the majority of the 650 mps. The Conservatives hold 315 seats ; May will, therefore, need the support of 10 members of the small unionist party irish DUP, but probably also a number of the 257 members of the labour Party, to overcome the defections can be expected in his own party.
A scenario is still plausible. Indeed, the first minister has already surmounted with a remarkable tenacity several political crises since it came to power after the referendum in June 2016 having decided to Brexit.
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• The agreement is rejected, May subject to cancellation
If the Parliament rejects the agreement, two scenarios are possible: either the mps ask Theresa May to renegotiate the agreement with the EU, an assumption that we refuse to consider on the european side but that is not to be excluded, according to a source, european ; is the labour opposition tabled a motion of no confidence against the government and trigger early elections.
Regarding this last hypothesis, it would be the second early elections in two years, since Theresa had believed to be a good idea to organize by June 2017 to strengthen its hand, thus losing its absolute majority.
the Last option: two-thirds of mps vote for new elections, without the intervention of the Labour.
• The assumption of a “hard Brexit”
In case of rejection of the project by the Parliament, or for the appointment of a successor to May, who refuses to discuss with the european Union the Brexit will happen without agreement.
This is the disaster scenario for the economic and financial sectors in the uk. The sudden rupture, even if the government is prepared, it could cause traffic jams monstrous in the vicinity of the ports connecting to the mainland, depriving european citizens of their privileged status or to beat potentially the aircraft to the ground.
by last-minute negotiations could limit the chaos on specific areas, but all in all, these are the rules of the world trade Organization (WTO), which would prevail.
• The assumption of a second referendum
The idea continues to gain ground, but Theresa May rule it out categorically. Such a consultation would see the British rule on the content of the agreement obtained by Theresa May, or even would raise the question of cancellation of the Brexit.
But the arithmetic in parliament and the limited time represent significant barriers. It would be necessary that a majority of the members are in agreement. However, the conservatives are on the whole not favourable. And the idea is not unanimity in the labour party.
And it would take at least five months to organize such a consultation, which would mean a postponement of the release date, on the condition that the EU agrees.
Theresa May preclude the organization of a second referendum – to Look on Figaro Live