In just eight years, two-thirds of the cars sold in Germany will be battery-powered. However, charging and supply chains in particular still pose major challenges.
According to a study by the Boston Consulting Group, Germany is becoming a global pioneer in electromobility. By 2025, almost 40 percent of the cars sold will be purely battery-powered, and by 2030 even two-thirds.
“In an international comparison, this is one of the highest values,” said BCG on Friday.
Accelerator: Strict regulations and investments
A ban on combustion engines in the EU from 2035 has already been factored into the calculations. Increasingly stricter requirements and the high investments in the auto industry are accelerating electrification, said BCG industry expert Albert Waas.
In three years, 30 percent of new cars in the EU are likely to be purely battery electric (BEV), 29 percent in China and 19 percent in the USA. “In 2028, pure electric cars will be the best-selling vehicle type worldwide,” the management consultancy expects. For 2030, BCG expects a BEV share of 60 percent in the EU, 52 percent in China and 47 percent in the USA. Outside of these three main markets, gasoline and diesel vehicles will continue to be in demand for the time being: there, the BEV share of sales will probably only account for around 35 percent in 2035.
Chip shortage, supply chains and stores as problems
“The challenges of the auto industry are now the two big “L”s: supply chains and stores,” said Waas. The lack of chips will also keep the industry busy. “The demand for lithium will increase eightfold by the end of the decade and battery prices will start to rise again.” The automotive industry will need a million tons of lithium as early as 2025, and even 2.2 million tons in 2030. The battery makes up a good third of the price of a car. Automakers would need to secure early access to raw materials, for example through partnerships or direct sourcing, and retrieve and recycle recyclable material.
The second sticking point is public charging stations for drivers who do not have a wall box at home or at work: “In the short term, the charging infrastructure cannot keep up with the rapid pace of electrification,” said Waas. By 2025 there will only be six million public charging points worldwide.