According to preliminary data from the statisticians, Germany’s economic output grew slightly in the first quarter – after it had shrunk in the final quarter of the previous year. But how reliable is this estimate?

Rising energy prices, delivery bottlenecks, backlog of orders: How badly is the German economy feeling the consequences of the Ukraine war?

So far, economists have been assuming that the German economy will grow in the current year despite the gloomier environment – even if the economic forecasts are now significantly more pessimistic than before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

In the first quarter of 2022, the economic output of Europe’s largest economy increased by 0.2 percent compared to the previous quarter, according to an initial estimate. And that despite the ongoing corona pandemic and the first effects of the Russian attack. However, the Federal Statistical Office pointed out that its preliminary calculation is less reliable than usual. The Wiesbaden authorities want to publish detailed results on the development of the gross domestic product (GDP) in Germany in the period from January to the end of March of the current year this Wednesday.

According to initial information from the Wiesbaden statisticians at the end of April, higher investments ensured growth in the first quarter, while the export balance slowed down the export nation Germany. According to preliminary information, the feared second negative quarter in a row and with it a so-called technical recession did not materialize. In the final quarter of 2021, Germany’s economic output fell by 0.3 percent. If the economy shrinks two quarters in a row compared to the previous quarter, economists speak of a “technical recession”.