Of course, the peace researcher Prof. Ursula Schröder cannot predict when the war in Ukraine will end. There is no clear scenario as to how peace could come – but there are many approaches that cause opinions to drift apart.
Recently, a number of German celebrities – such as author Juli Zeh or science journalist Ranga Yogeshwar – in an open letter called on politicians to end the Ukraine war through negotiations and once again questioned whether arms deliveries are the right way.
The idea of ending the war in Ukraine with a “ceasefire that is currently to be called for” is unrealistic, says peace researcher Prof. Ursula Schröder in the 310th edition of the podcast “Today’s Important”: “We are dealing with an extreme to wage brutal war of aggression. If arms deliveries were simply suspended now, it would mean that Ukraine would be less able to defend itself and would definitely not be able to negotiate – simply because there would be no negotiating table.”
According to Prof. Schröder, arms deliveries undoubtedly prolong the war – an extension that is wanted. Because an end to the war would currently mean a victory for Russia. “But the western alliance wants to enable Ukraine to negotiate from a position of strength,” she says in an interview with “Today’s Important” host Michel Abdollahi, although it’s unclear whether that will work.
An end to the war in Ukraine is probably a long way off
According to Prof. Schröder, the scenarios played out in peace research are very pessimistic when it comes to the duration of the war in Ukraine: “The question is whether the war will end at all.”
In the long term, there is likely to be no alternative to diplomatic solutions, says the peace researcher, “but the diplomatic solution is not yet on the table.” All warring parties must first recognize that the military goals cannot be implemented.
When Prof. Ursula Schröder looks into the future, from her point of view the world order has changed and will change in the future. Dropped into a time of many other crises – the pandemic, the climate crisis, hunger and inequality – this war is amplifying these tendencies and damaging the international cooperation needed to combat these crises. “The new world order will be messy, it will be complicated. We are probably dealing with the end of the liberal world order.”
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