Loading on a network of “Russian Railways” (RZD) in 2019 decreased by 0.9% to 1,278 billion tons reported herself the monopoly of the state. Until 2019, the collection has grown for three consecutive years. For example, in 2018 – by 2.2%.
In 2019 decreased loading of coal and oil with petroleum products, which account for almost half of railway transportation. The first 0.8% to 372 million tonnes, the second by 1.9% to 232 million tons of other cargoes, Inbox in the top 5 (construction materials, iron and manganese ore, fertilizers) increased up to 3%, but could not change the overall picture. Most in 2019 has fallen a grain loading (by 20.1% to 21.7 million tons), the largest increase has demonstrated the carriage of cement (4.7% to 26.3 million tons), follows from the data of Russian Railways.
For the Railways reduction of loading was not unexpected. But the basic forecast assumes less of a decline – by 0.5%. In the first half of 2019 and the company is counting on growth of 1.5%. Particularly unfortunate was the last two months of last year, in November and December the decline in loading was 1.9% and 2%, respectively. This is primarily caused by the deterioration of the situation on world markets, prompting producers of basic goods to accumulate stocks of finished goods in warehouses in anticipation of rising prices, says the representative of the Russian Railways.
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a Fall of coal loading observed for the first time since 2009, emphasizes the Deputy Director of the Institute of natural monopolies Vladimir Savchuk. “The main reason is the unfavourable economic situation on the external market, mainly European, – he explains. – The world prices, which from 2014 has steadily increased, in a short time fell sharply to the level of 2016.” Drop in loading of oil and oil products, he connects with increased competition from other types of transport, first the entire pipeline. “For example, last year launched a pipeline to the Komsomolsk refinery, which led to a significant reduction in the loading of crude oil,” recalls Savchuk.
a Reduction in the loading of coal in 2019, largely due to reduced consumption in Europe, of oil and oil products – with repairs at a large refinery and care of the volumes for pipeline transport, says a representative of Russia’s largest private rail operator First cargo company (PGK). Among other factors – the unfinished modernization of the Eastern landfill, he says. Infrastructure constraints do not allow us to fill the gaps in my collection, agrees the Chairman of the expert Council of the research Institute of railway transport Pavel Ivankin. This problem, for example, prevented to transfer of unclaimed coal, from European destinations to the East, indicates the Director of corporate and sovereign ratings “Expert RA” Igor Smirnov. Negative impact on the loading of coal has also had a decreasing consumption in the domestic market because of the unusually warm weather, said General Director of “Infoline-Analytics” Mikhail Burmistrov.
the Increase in construction freight loading and cement, the representative of PGK binds with the implementation of major national projects such as “Safe and quality road” and “Housing and the urban environment”. “According to preliminary forecasts, this trend will continue in 2020, — said the source “Vedomosti”. — Growth as in the past year, as can be expected in the segments of iron ore and fertilizers, goods transported in containers”. Meanwhile, in 2020 may increase drop in loading of coal, fears the employee of another major operator of the company.
Railways calculated that the total loading on the Railways in 2020 will return to growth. The financial plan provides medium-sized businesses a monopolyannual loading increase in 2020-2022. in the amount of 2.5% and the forecast remains, said the representative of Russian Railways.
the Institute of natural monopolies According to estimates, in 2020 the loading on RZD network can be increased by 0.6-1%. Growth will contribute to economic recovery in foreign markets, especially for coal, ferrous metals, as well as the positive dynamics of other groups of goods such as chemical and mineral fertilizers, ore, construction materials, lists Savchuk. “In addition, leap years add 0.25 to 0.3 p. p. loading”, – he said.
In 2020 the loading on RZD network will remain at level of last year, said Ivankin. “Abnormally warm weather will continue to adversely affect consumption of coal in the domestic market and to increase export shipments to the Far East ports will be extremely difficult,” he says.