the Decline in oil prices, reduction of export and domestic restrictions due to coronavirus are the main shocks for the Russian economy in 2020, said the Deputy Chairman of the security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev in an article for the journal “Russia in global politics”. Possible new crisis.
But the country has the experience in difficult conditions, and Russia will be able to cope with other global shocks, said Medvedev.
“the Current adverse situation could trigger a new financial crisis in one or more countries, — said Medvedev. — This, in turn, will put pressure on financial and currency markets of Russia and will cause additional decline in demand for Russian exports. The probability of such a shock increases with time, and in 2021 the risk will be higher than in 2020. To this we must also be ready.”
the Decline in world oil prices
“Today our country is feeling the effects of three economic shocks, — said Medvedev. — First, the drop in oil prices on the world market. This is the main shock, as the domestic economy has remained dependent on exports of hydrocarbons”.
Over the past 20 years, Russia three times withstood such attacks, and during that time prepared to meet new challenges. Thus was created the national welfare Fund (NWF), which is replenished in a period of high prices for raw materials, and is spent in crisis situations to support citizens and the economy.
According to Medvedev, “the main negative effect we should expect in 2020”, and in the following year, “the economy will be able in General to adapt to new conditions, regardless of the dynamics of oil prices”.
Consequences quarantine restrictions
Limitations due to the pandemic and the subsequent shock to the economy are unparalleled. The economic recovery will begin quickly enough, provided that the new wave of the pandemic will not lead to another limitation, says Samedzadesignal security Council. So far so good. The index of openness of the economy in the regions of Russia – the lifting of restrictions increased to 89.6% from dekorativnogo level, estimated earlier, the Ministry of economic development.
the Reduction of trade between countries and the global economic slowdown led to a decline in demand for Russian goods. The main reason for one is the consequence of restrictive measures and the temporary gap of economic and logistics relations.
According to Medvedev, the duration of such drop may be limited by the validity of strict quarantine measures, after which the demand will recover. Remains the threat of a new pandemic, which may cause “the world economy a devastating blow, comparable only with the world wars,” — said Medvedev.
Program for the recovery of the Russian economy will expand
the Program of restoration of economy of Russia will significantly expand, said the first Deputy Chairman of the state Duma Alexander Zhukov following the results of meeting held with representatives of the Russian government.
we discuss the new support for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), transport, agriculture and not only on the system under OKVED (all-Russian classifier of types of economic activity). There are victims of the enterprise, but not all of them fit the criteria of support due to the fact that in the NACE they have the same direction of their work, but “in real life is not a major, and a large part of the implementation of their products are in other categories”.
According to Zhukov, the government solves this problem. Covers support for various types of transport – “air and sea transport, special attention to supporting transportation in rural areas, something that is not reflected in the program.” Prepared and additional support to farmers and villages, including the reduction of electricity tariffs for agriculture.
the National economic recovery plan focus on ROSt GDP of at least 2.5% by the end of 2021, the reduction of unemployment to 5% and the increase in real incomes. The plan was discussed on June 2 during the online meeting, Prime Minister Mikhail mishustina with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The President instructed to finalize the document.