the Motto of the campaign, Biden can read: “Today you are better off than 4 years ago?”. In the era of a President can be created tons of jobs. However, this does not guarantee a good life for ordinary citizens, nor the fact that the President be re-elected.
Take Jimmy Carter. During the four years of tenure in the U.S. economy was created 10.3 million jobs — an average of 215 thousand per month. With the growth of the population (an increase of 45% since 1980), now it is amounted to 310 thousand new jobs per month.
yet in 1980, Ronald Reagan bested Carter won only 6 States and gained 41% of votes. Now take the President of Donald trump. In the first 37 months of his reign (from February 2017 to February 2020) monthly average created 185 thousand jobs, 60% of what is created Carter (taking into account population growth).
“work, Work, work!”, — will repeat on Twitter trump, emphasizing the spectacular, a Grand scale of what is happening in the era of his reign. And because he really has achieved impressive results: nearly 48 million Americans lost their jobs, according to the data on applications for unemployment benefits. 3.1 million for the first time applied for unemployment benefits on Thursday. Needless to say, amazing, grandiose! However, not in the sense in which wishes trump.
What will turn these huge numbers for the chances of his re-election?
first, we already know how the majority of States will vote this fall. According to projections, the former us Vice-President Joe Biden prepared to 232 voters vote for trump — only 204.
Biden need 270 votes to win, and Trump — 269. 269 why? Because, if in the electoral College 269-269 draw, elections are held in the House of representatives, and the delegation from each state gets one vote.
Then the results of the November elections in the House of representatives will be torationale because the voting will take place in the House. You may be surprised to learn that this can lead to re-election trump, given that the Republicans can control more delegations of the house of representatives (26), even if they have fewer seats overall. Democrats control only 22 of the delegation, two other States, Michigan and Pennsylvania, equally divided delegation. If the ratio is 269-269, the Democrats may not be able to control a sufficient number of state delegations that Biden won the election.
In any case, there are a few States that five months can have an equal chance:
Florida (29 votes)Pennsylvania (20)Michigan (16)North Carolina (15)Arizona (11)Wisconsin (10)
trump and Biden understand that the road to the White house runs through these 6 States, which will bring 101 the voice of the voters. Further, if you believe the idea of “It’s the economy, stupid!”, the rise in unemployment in these six States do not Bode well for the President.
When trump won the election 4 years ago, the unemployment rate (October 2016) was low in all six States, from 3.9% in Wisconsin to 5.2% in Arizona. And yet trump has won four of these States with a slight advantage: Florida by 1.2 percentage points, Wisconsin by 0.77 points, in Pennsylvania by 0.72 p. and 0.23 p. Michigan, North Carolina and Arizona on 3.5 points in each state.
But if we consider the unemployment rate in the 6 major States now receive the following:
Florida: 12.9% of Pennsylvania: 15,1% Michigan: 22,7% North Carolina: 12,2% Arizona: 12,6%Wisconsin: 14,1%
If trump had hardly gained the most votes in these States, when there was a good situation, what will happen now, when things are from bad to worse?
During the single debate between Reagan and Carter, the former Governor of California, saying the final speech, looked directly into the camera and asked Americans a simple but devastating question: “Today you live better than 4 years ago?”.
the Americans responded, no. They feel humiliated in 1980. They thought that the United States isn’t what it was before. What the world laughs at them, so out of control and need a change.
This pattern is familiar to many today.
And I want again to ask the question: “Today you are better off than 4 years ago?”.