After the European Central Bank (ECB) gave the final signal for a turnaround in interest rates in the euro area, central bank measures are likely to have a major influence on the course of the stock exchanges again in the new week.
After the European Central Bank (ECB) gave the final signal for a turnaround in interest rates in the euro area, central bank measures are likely to have a major influence on the course of the stock exchanges again in the new week.
The ECB reacted to the record high inflation later than other important central banks and has now announced the first key interest rate hike in the euro area in eleven years for July. Interest rates are rising, and investments that are perceived as safe, such as time deposits, are becoming an issue again. However, the meager yields are more than eaten up by the high inflation.
Dax closes with fourth consecutive day of losses
On Friday, the Dax closed 3.08 percent lower at 13,761.83 points. It was his fourth day of losses in a row, so the weekly balance sheet was also very weak at minus 4.8 percent.
It remains to be seen whether investors will regain access to the lower price level after the weak Dax week. A possible new slide in the leading German index could be used to enter or increase positions, according to the current Fuchs stock exchange letter. This would mean that the Dax would return to the area of the recently cracked downward trend since the beginning of the year, which is not uncommon. At 14,600 and then 15,300 points, the Fuchs experts see the next chart hurdles on the way up.
Economist: Fed will raise interest rates
Experts are agreed that on Wednesday the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to tighten monetary policy to curb inflation. Commerzbank economist Christoph Balz assumes that the Fed will raise its key interest rate by 0.5 percentage points, as it did at the last meeting. In addition to the interest rate meeting in the United States, the interest rate decisions by the Swiss and British central banks on Thursday and the Japanese central bank on Friday are also on the agenda.
Retail sales in China and the US for May are also important. They will be published in the middle of the week and could provide information about the extent to which the sharp rise in prices is dampening consumer spending. In Germany, the ZEW economic expectations are one of the first leading indicators for June on the calendar on Tuesday.
The big expiration day on the stock exchanges will probably also cause movement on the stock market on Friday. Futures contracts on stocks and indices on the futures exchanges then expire. On these dates, share prices and indices can fluctuate noticeably without any significant company or economic news. Behind these movements are market participants whose time limit for realizing their derivative transactions is running out. Above all, fund or asset managers try beforehand to drive the current prices in the direction of the prices at which they are committed on the futures exchange.
