LE FIGARO. – The democrats prevail in the house of representatives, but the republicans reinforce to the Senate. Can we really speak of the wave in blue?

Vincent MICHELOT. – The democrats would have obviously liked to have a greater majority. But, in practice, the fact of having a majority of 20 or 40 in the House of representatives is not a huge difference given that the democratic party is an opposition party. It progresses however, in some States, as in the very conservative Kansas, Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, which are part of this industrial belt, the Rust Belt , which had allowed Trump to prevail in 2016. The democratic party has, therefore, an ability to bounce back. At the same time, for the positions of governor, he loses in both States-the most coveted – Ohio and Florida -shows that the republicans also have a strong resilience.

” LIVE – Midterms 2018: victory democrat in the House of representatives but not of the “wave” anti-Trump

– Donald Trump has even spoken of a “huge success this evening.” What do you think of this interpretation?

It is necessary to make the difference between communication and reality. He had announced that if he retained the Senate, it would be a victory. It is, therefore, true to his ads. There is a famous phrase of president Kennedy, which corresponds perfectly to the situation: “victory has a thousand fathers and defeat is an orphan”. Donald Trump believes that the defeat of the republicans in the House of representatives is not his because his name was not on the ballot. He claims, however, the victory in the Senate, even if his name was not there either, but the us president has made a campaign to be very intense to support its candidates.

– The new Congress will there be an impact on domestic policy of Donald Trump?

It’s not going to change much. Apart from a large act on the tax cuts, Donald Trump has no major legislation to his credit. The transformation of american society that it was able to operate was made through presidential decrees, the executive orders . Donald Trump is disinterested in the Congress and think that everything is done through the executive. The big difference will not be the “legislator in chief” Trump, but the democrats are going to be able to put a spoke in the wheels because they will have the ability to launch commissions of inquiry. The Congress does not vote only the law, but also controls the execution. With these commissions of inquiry, the democrats will be able to do to Donald Trump as a form of torture in chinese: in particular, in the case of Russian, they will be able to summon witnesses, require the administration to the production of documents, etc, The White House will face a kind of ongoing study.

– Is this unprecedented?

The political climate is particular since the election of Donald Trump, but, beyond that, the american voters militate in favour of a rebalancing of regular powers. There is now a unified government to a form of cohabitation in the u.s., which is very common. This illustrates very well the balance of powers known as “checks and balances” in the United States, but found more widely in all constitutional democracies.

– The new Congress can initiate an impeachment?

For some time in the United States, to talk about the “impeachment”, we use the expression “the i-word” as we say “the n-word,” not to say “negro”. The democrats are quite aware of the risk to initiate a procedure of impeachment of the american president. Donald Trump encourages them warmly in this sense, because it would mobilize his electoral base.

To carry out a procedure of impeachment, there are two steps. It must first be a simple majority in the House of representatives to vote articles of impeachment. It is then necessary that the qualified majority of two thirds of the senators vote to the outcome of a trial for the impeachment of the president. Saw the strengthening of the republicans in the Senate, there is no chance of seeing such a procedure.

– In appointments, Donald Trump fate-he reinforced these “Midterms”?

All federal magistrates, including judges of the supreme Court, are appointed for life by the president with the “advice and consent” of the Senate. Suddenly, some of them fall under a form of analysis, a morbid state of health of the judges, who are older, including the supreme Court. Beyond these speculations, it is certain that there will be new appointments. There will also be a forthcoming reshuffle, with the appointment of new ministers. Again, it will be necessary to have the approval of the Senate.

– And in terms of foreign policy?

Then, there, say clear things: there will be absolutely no change. A stop of 1936 the supreme Court confirmed, and the president of the United States has of powers, “plenary” in the matter. The Congress can certainly provide for limitations on the budget of the military operations and some commercial treaties, but with a peculiarity which plays in favor of Trump: the two chambers of Congress are equally powerful, except for foreign Affairs where the Senate prevails over the House of representatives. The Constitution assigns the power to ratify treaties and to control the appointment of ambassadors by the same procedure of”notice and consent”. There are subtleties: certain treaties, such as NAFTA (treaty of trade between the countries of North America), have been ratified by a more complex process that involved the two rooms. But without going into these details, the Congress will have no impact in terms of foreign policy.

– D onc, no change in the american policy of sanctions vis-à-vis Iran?

Donald Trump will be able to say, like children in the schoolyard: “no fear”. Be it on Iran, North Korea or Russia, the House of representatives will have absolutely nothing to say.

– the results of The “Midterms” can they have an impact on the next presidential election of the year 2020?

there are several ways to enjoy the coming two years. A first is to say that cohabitation will result in an institutionally paralyzed Congress, nothing will come of it. It will be a miracle if they arrive already to vote on a budget… In principle, this isn’t good for democrats who do not want to spend for the party of obstruction, nor to the republicans who do not want to appear with a weak balance sheet.

” READ ALSO – Midterms: Donald Trump already has his eye on the presidential election of 2020.

– And the other way to see things?

Donald Trump has no real anchors ideological and favours a transactional approach. What he wants is only to get “wins” (wins). If he needs to negotiate with the democrats, he will do it without any reserve. In front, it would be good for democrats to obtain concessions in infrastructure or healthcare, for example. There are areas where the two major parties can do to pass legislation.

– But did he not, on the contrary, a bias to the left of the democratic party and to the right of the republicans?

This is the difficulty. The democratic party is not united. When “Midterms”, candidates from the far left -sometimes more to the left than Bernie Sanders – took the ascendant. Conversely, the democrats have presented some candidates very centrist in some States-pivot. To republicans, it is the right who have been re-elected. The moderates were in the constituencies themselves moderate, who are historically those that switch first. So nothing is played.

” SEE ALSO – The new faces of the american Congress

The new faces of the u.s. Congress – Watching on Figaro Live