Leading economic researchers in Germany have set up simulation calculations. After that, the probability of a supply gap is lower than before.

According to a study by leading economic researchers, the probability of a supply gap with natural gas in the event of a stop to Russian deliveries is significantly lower than in April.

However, despite better-filled storage facilities, not all risks for the gas supply to industry in the winter half-year have been banned, the Munich Ifo Institute, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), the Essen RWI and the IWH Halle announced on Tuesday based on new simulation calculations . As a countermeasure, the economists recommend, among other things, “to let the price signals reach consumers promptly” – i.e. to increase prices so that less gas is consumed.

The reason for the more favorable forecast is that the gas storage facilities in Germany are now much better filled. However, the supply of the industry is not yet completely certain. If deliveries were to stop immediately, there would still be a 20 percent probability of a gas gap of at least 23.8 terawatt hours (TWh) with a loss of value added of 46 billion euros for the economy. In the most negative scenario, it would even be almost 160 TWh and 283 billion euros. If, on the other hand, the supply of gas through Russia were reduced to 40 percent, as is currently the case, there would be no threat of a bottleneck even in unfavorable constellations.

The economic researchers reject bonuses for saving gas, as recently discussed. Higher prices have already provided a strong incentive to save energy. Instead, needy households should be specifically supported.