Instead of the estimate in December, the inflation rate in 2022 will not be 3.2 percent, but more than twice as high. According to the ECB, the economy is also growing less than expected.
According to the European Central Bank, the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine are dampening economic development in the euro area and driving up inflation.
Inflation rate at 6.8 percent
In its forecast, the central bank expects significantly weaker economic growth and a stronger increase in consumer prices than assumed in March. Accordingly, the rate of inflation this year will be 6.8 percent. In March, the central bank had assumed 5.1 percent and in December 3.2 percent.
For the coming year, the currency watchdogs expect an annual average price increase of 3.5 percent (March forecast: 2.1 percent). For 2024, the ECB predicts an inflation rate of 2.1 percent in the currency area (March: 1.9 percent).
The economy will probably grow less strongly
The central bank is aiming for an annual inflation rate of 2 percent in the medium term for the 19 euro countries. For months, inflation has been driven primarily by energy prices, which rose sharply again after the Russian attack on Ukraine.
According to the latest ECB forecast, the economy in the euro zone will grow by 2.8 percent this year (March forecast: 3.7 percent). Gross domestic product is expected to grow by 2.1 percent in 2023 (March: 2.8 percent) and a year later by 2.1 percent (March: 1.6 percent).