We advance slowly, but we advance. In Rome, as in Brussels, this is the time to dialogue on the draft budget Italian for 2019. The tone was intended to be positive during the meeting of the ministers of the Eurogroup on Monday. The european Commission has welcomed new Italian proposals which go in the right direction. “Through dialogue, we can create a different atmosphere” said the european commissioner for the economy Pierre Moscovici. After having rejected the budget, Italian, Brussels seems ready to relent, and Rome to move the lines.

In Italy, there is now an agreement, because the Italians did not want a confrontation with Brussels. According to a poll by SWG, nearly 7 Italians out of 10 are in favour of an agreement with the Union, and 28 % would be willing to negotiate without condition. 42 % of Italians think that today there is a need to sacrifice the income of citizenship. If the survey from Ipsos showed Italy more divided on the budget, the popularity of the Italian government has suffered from the hardness of his position. As it appears that the conflict with Brussels is too costly to the Italian economy.

” READ ALSO – Budget: Brussels and Rome adopted a more conciliatory tone.

Giovanni Cagnoli, who led Bath in Italy for twenty-nine years, has calculated that the widening of the rate spread with Germany of 300 points was increasing the public debt, Italian 1.5 billion in 2018, with $ 5 billion in 2019 and $ 9 billion in 2020. Of additional interest that, over the three years, would cost each Italian 258 euros. Already, the new mortgages are more expensive, such as loans to companies. The morale of the Italians is affected: the index of business confidence, as households declined for the fifth consecutive month. Consumption and investment are down, only exported support the activity. At that point, after having recorded a GDP decline of 0.1 % in the third quarter, today’s tip the risk of a “third recession”. Goldman Sachs forecasts growth of just 0.4 % in 2019, after the beginning of the year close of the recession.

narrow Path for an agreement

However, if one wants an agreement, the path is narrow. In Italy, the League says it wants to “maintain open dialogue and respectful with institutions without renouncing the pact with the Italians.” Which means keeping two leading reforms of the government, the early retirement and the income of citizenship. While in Rome, we want to keep to the decline in the nominal deficit, now at 2.4% of GDP, in Brussels, it always asks for a reduction of 0.6% of GDP of the structural deficit, excluding the impact of the economic environment. Brussels demand 7 to 8 billion euros of savings on spending, either to reduce by two the total cost of the two reforms, to $ 16 billion. If it promotes the dialogue, the Committee continues to prepare for the launch of the procedure for excessive deficit based on the debt against Italy, whose only prospect is enough to scare the financial markets.

If Matteo Salvini is arc-boute against an amendment to the pension reform, two pathways of development are, however, that the study: first, make the transitional reform measures, so that it does not last more than three years. Or book access to the early departure of those who are eligible for at least two years. The discussion continues this Monday in Parliament to amend the budget under discussion by retouch. But it is the Senate that will be introduced key amendments to the two reforms. In Rome, it is estimated that we have ten days, until December 14 to make a copy acceptable to Brussels. In the european capital, the Commission may recommend the initiation of proceedings for December 19.

Not yet a “Tobin tax”, european

This was not the right day! After the leak on Sunday in the press bavarian of a franco-German proposal for a new tax on financial transactions at european level, Paris and Berlin have yet to finalize their copy, according to a member of the French government.

Monday morning, on the sidelines of the meeting of the Finance ministers of the euro area (Eurogroup), France and Germany have discussed the proposal, with the other eight european countries which are trying for six years to put in place a common tax similar. The Commission was seen as “a symbolic gesture” and other ministers have reiterated their red lines. As in Paris and Berlin, nothing is won yet. They must always decide whether this tax must bring own resources to the budget of the european Union or the euro area.

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