The global uncertainty and the high valuations hamper operations

AmRest, The owner of la Tagliatella, debut on the Spanish Stock exchange and rule out new acquisitions

The forecasts pointed to a year of animated outputs to Bag in Spain, but 2018 is about to end and only four companies have performed the symbolic ringing of the bell. The last, AmRest , made it yesterday taking advantage of the last gasps of the boom of the restoration in our country, but its case is insufficient to overcome a certain feeling decaffeinated among investors and analysts.

“it Could have been a much better year”, pointing to Dario Garcia , an analyst from the firm trading XTB . Cepsa, you Have Real Estate , Tendam (the new name for the Group Cortefiel), Azora , Via Célere or Cox Energy are some of the companies that for months have expressed intentions to go out to the parquet floor, but finally have not come to’t; some, without the aspect to retake the project in the short term and the other with the idea to revive when conditions are more attractive.

This was the explanation given by Cepsa, when three days before the planned date, has suspended its debut stock market in Spain. He blamed then to “the great uncertainty” in the international markets and called on investors to a far less convulsive.

The experts consulted by this newspaper agree on the point to that uncertainty as one of the keys to understanding such operation frustrated. “It’s not about a single cause, but rather the accumulation of factors economic, socio-political and geopolitical cause for concern in the markets”, pointing to Ramón Galcerán , managing partner of Financial Advisory consulting firm Grant Thornton .

The crisis of the Turkish lira, the crisis in Argentina, the trade war between the U.S. and China, the Brexit, the political tension in Italy, or the slowdown of the european economy have reduced the willingness of investors, especially the institutional profile. In Spain , in addition, the second half has been marked by the change of Government and the fragmentation of parliamentary , which makes agreements to put in place new measures and, on the contrary, has fueled some uncertainty legal and regulatory framework in certain sectors.

When investors identify this type of factors are withdrawn from the variable income, to the hope that the scenario is cleared, and this causes the companies that can afford to delay their placements to a more favorable moment.

The chairman of the board of AmRest, José Parés, in the debut this Wednesday. EFE

Prices too high

Along with the uncertainty, the high ratings also explain why some companies were on the path or were on the verge of doing so.

This was the case of Árima, the socimi created by the founder of Axiare, Luis Alfonso López de Herrera-Oria, which delayed his debut until on two occasions by the lack of demand due, precisely, to the high prices that had been raised for their release.

The initial proposal aimed to raise funds worth 300 million, but eventually had to reduce it to 100 million. All in all, its first day of trading ended with a decline of 10%, which left the titles on the level of 9 euros. The society meets morning a month in the markets and in these weeks it has managed to back up to add a revaluation by more than 4%.

Nothing to do with the tour of Metrovacesa , the big premiere stock market so far this year. The real estate company controlled by Santander and BBVA returned to the parquet in February, and since then accumulated almost a 30% loss in the value of their actions.

Testa , which also delayed by several weeks its announced debut, had to lower their aspirations to contribute to the Continuous to do so in the Alternative Stock Market (MAB). Currently their actions are worth 14,40 € to 13,90 euros which marked after the ringing of the bell.

for the next few months, some operations are still in the air. Is the case you Have Real Estate , the servicer’s real estate controlled by the fund Cerberus expects to resolve its negotiations with Sareb, to define its strategy in this regard.

Cabify , the platform, rent of vehicle with driver (VTC) was given a term of 18 months to go public, or Tendam, pointing to 2019.

In any case, the analysts consulted point out that if they resolve issues such as the Brexit, or the challenge Italian to the EU, the markets will stabilize and will be an enabling environment for companies that want to start trading. In fact, explained that there are companies that are doing the work needed to have everything ready for when the situation is more stable.

global Trend

Spain has been the only country where the exits to the Bag have been severed during 2018. Companies such as Tencent Music , Sonae Retail , Gate Group , Springer Nature or Aramco , the oil giant saudi arabia, have completed postponed its incorporation into the equity markets.

Only in the first half of the year, the number of operations at the global level dropped by 19%, to 676, with an aggregate assessed valuation of 90,000 million dollars (something less than 79,000 million euros), according to a report from Baker McKenzie.

In the first nine months of the year and according to the study Global IPO trends 2018 prepared by HEY , the volume totaled by all OPVs at the global level -145.100 million dollars, up to September – was down 18% compared to the same period of the previous year.

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