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After several years without making act of presence, the probability that El Niño re is now very high. In the areas where it rains, it will rain less. And in the areas in which there is no precipitation, these will be multiplied. Is the summary of the effects of a phenomenon that, with a probability of between 75 percent and 80 percent, will be between this same month of December and February 2019. The probability that elongate at least up to April is 60 percent, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

scientists, however, predict that occur will not be an episode as severe as the one registered between 2015 and 2016 , when The Child was related to droughts, floods, and the bleaching of corals in different parts of the world.

“The Child changes the patterns of the climate at the global level, although the effects occur mostly in the Pacific area, and reduced the area of South America,” says the spokesman of the State Agency of Meteorology (Aemet), Reuben Field. “For example, you could produce a driest winter in the Amazon basin; or rain more in Peru or Ecuador”. According to the WMO, The Child could have an impact on agriculture, the management of water resources and the public health . In addition, it could be combined with the global warming and lead to a jump of the temperatures, as it did in 2016. That year was the warmest since records began in 1880. The global temperature was 1.1 ºC.

This climate phenomenon is produced by the warming of the surface waters of the eastern Pacific . “Normally, the waters in this area are cold, but leave it up to the surface and the water that stays on top is hotter. This has consequences weather patterns of rain,” explains Field.

From the past month of October, the sea surface temperature in parts of eastern and central tropical Pacific are located in the levels corresponding to an episode weak of The Child . This increased heat has not yet had an effect on the atmospheric parameters, but it is likely to happen in the next three months.

Effects in Spain

Although this is a phenomenon with consequences at the global level, Spain is likely to have little impact, as there are in the Peninsula other dynamics with the greatest influence on the climate, account Of the Field. In this sense, the spokesperson cites the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), an index that calculates the difference of air pressure between mid-latitudes. When the pressure difference is very high, the storms are shifted to the north. When it is negative, you arrive to the Peninsula.