The debate about Austria’s neutrality continues. The question now is whether the country should join NATO. The government refuses. But what makes you so sure about the decision?
The eastward expansion of NATO is repugnant to Russian head of state Vladimir Putin. The war of aggression on Ukraine is therefore also a response to the “Western threat” and should show that Russia can also expand its sovereign territory. But that backfired. While the Russian lightning victory does not materialize after almost three months of war, the transatlantic military alliance is growing. Finland and Sweden want to join. One could also speak of a northern expansion. This should annoy the Russian aggressor.
On the other hand, a southern expansion will probably not come about, if one is to believe the words of the Austrian Federal Chancellor Karl Nehammer (ÖVP). Since the beginning of the war, he has never tired of emphasizing that neutrality is part of Austrian identity.
Austria has an open letter from 55 intellectuals, politicians and former diplomats to thank for the fact that the debate about joining NATO is now flaring up again, despite all efforts to nip it in the bud. “Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is not only a crime and a tragedy, but also the last warning call to the free world, to which Austria belongs,” it says. They are therefore calling for “a debate without blinders” on Austria’s neutrality. The message is that one should reconsider joining NATO.
The government has a different opinion. Neutrality has always served well, which is why Nehammer declared the discussion over at the beginning of March. He is supported not only by the opposition. The population can also rally behind the Chancellor’s decision. According to a survey from early March, 91 percent of the citizens surveyed considered Austrian neutrality “very important” or “rather important”. In a referendum, the result would be clear.
Which doesn’t mean that Austria isn’t “completely solidary” with Ukraine, as Chancellor Nehammer says. And this is exactly where it becomes clear: Austria is not that neutral at all, the much-vaunted concept harbors potential for conflict.
How Russia controls Austrian decisions
Because of its dependence on Russian gas, Austria does not want to alienate Russia. After all, the Alpine republic gets 80 percent of its gas supplies from there – the contracts, like in Germany, will run for decades. The Austrian press speculates that if Russia were to turn off the gas tap, it would have massive economic consequences.
Perhaps that’s why Austria was one of those countries that initially wanted to follow Russia’s condition and pay for energy supplies in rubles – leading former Council of Europe President Donald Tusk to ask the acidic question “Are you still in the euro zone or in the ruble zone?” elicited.
Beyond the economic reasons, however, a completely different point prevails: the Austrians are forbidden by law to intervene militarily in interstate wars. The country is therefore not allowed to supply weapons or join a military alliance. Austria is thus acting according to Russian dictates. In 1955 the Soviet Union promised the Alpine Republic the withdrawal of troops and security guarantees. Provided that Austria maintains a neutrality like Switzerland. The agreement was recorded in the Moscow Memorandum and now has constitutional status. Both states have thus secured themselves. Or?
At least in the case of Ukraine, Russia has sufficiently shown that it is reluctant to stick to treaties from the past. In the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Russia, among others, agreed to preserve Ukrainian integrity if the country did not station nuclear weapons in its country. Almost 30 years later, something like state integrity is apparently no longer known in the Kremlin. Could this also threaten Austria?
Upgrade instead of free riders
No, Austria’s European policy spokesman Michel Reimon is certain. Unlike Finland, which shares a border of more than 1,000 kilometers with Russia, Austria is surrounded by NATO countries and is therefore “relatively safe”. Should Russia attack Austria, it would have to violate the sovereign territory of NATO countries. Then the alliance event would occur. Austria is in a comfortable position in this respect.
However, in order not to appear as a security free rider, the country is now planning to better equip its army. “A situation will arise where Austria has foreign policy interests and needs the support of neighboring countries,” said Reimon. So now the upgrade – based on the Swiss model. Every year, Austria uses 0.6 percent of its gross domestic product for defense spending. That is 2.7 billion euros. Switzerland spends twice as much. Because the Austrian government cannot find a majority in parliament for this sum, plans are now being made to invest one percent of gross domestic product in the military.
This seems urgently necessary, according to a recent survey by the Online Research Institute Marketagent among 500 Austrians on the reputation and tasks of the domestic armed forces. Compared to the last ten years, the army has become more important. However, two-thirds of those surveyed are of the opinion that this part of the troops was saved. Seven out of ten respondents believe that Austria needs armed forces and are in favor of increasing the army budget.
Maybe reconsider neutrality?
Beyond the military build-up, however, Austria must also submit to its role as an EU member and at least support the sanctions imposed on Russia. It was recently announced that the Alpine Republic has so far frozen 254 million euros from Russian oligarchs. The funds were parked in 97 accounts, as reported by the Chancellery in Vienna.
“When Russian oligarchs or their organizations support the war against Ukraine, they are complicit in the atrocities that are happening there,” said Chancellor Karl Nehammer.
This statement should also apply to Austria. Identity neutrality is a Russian dictate. Russia is thus part of the Austrian identity. From this perspective, one can hardly speak of neutrality. How can a country be neutral when its neutrality is dictated by another country, a world power and a warring party at that? At the end of the day, what remains is a realization that former Federal Chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel formulated back in 2001: namely that “the old templates of Lipizzaner horses, Mozart balls and neutrality (…) no longer apply in the complex reality of the 21st century”.
