It is unlikely that the new calm the “yellow vests”. But the fact is that the price of a barrel of brent crude, the main benchmark of the world’s oil market, has returned on Friday from under the threshold of 60 dollars. For the first time in thirteen months. The slide in the price of crude, since the beginning of October, picked up again Friday. The brent has lost $ 4 in one day, or 6 %, to reach $ 58.
Since the peak of the October 3, at 86 dollars, the price of oil has lost a third of its value (32 %)! The drop in prices at the pump is, it, much more modest. The last score weekly of the ministry of energy Transition (16 November), the litre of diesel fell 3.7% in six weeks, to settle at 1,4655 €/l, that of SP95 7.2 %, to 1,4592 €/l. The reduction is less for the driver French because the raw material represents only 35 % of the price of a litre of diesel and 31% for the super lead free 95 ; taxes in occupy 60 %.
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Why this drop in the price of black gold as tensions in the Middle East always seem to bright? On the supply side, Arabia has threatened to tighten the valves to reduce his production, but has not done so. As to the embargo by Donald Trump against iranian oil exports, it has not created a shock since Washington has allowed eight countries to continue to provide the country of the mullahs, albeit in smaller quantities. Added to this is the continued strength of the production of shale oil in the United States, the world’s primary source of production growth. In the Face of this abundant supply, over the economic forecasts of the IMF or the OECD, the slowdown of the economic expansion next year is confirmed. The consumption of petroleum products should feel.
experts expect that the Opec countries, with or without their ally, the Russian, do not let fall down the barrel too long. Riyadh may decide at the beginning of December, to extract a little less of crude oil to support prices. This would be the case nor of the “yellow vests” neither Emmanuel Macron.