in recent days, the yellow vests, ordinary citizens, non-political, and asyndicaux, show their anger at fuel prices, taxes and excise duties. And, beyond the price of the gasoline or diesel, they condemn them to poverty and their living conditions deteriorate day by day. Their actions are spontaneous, self-organized from the social networks, there arise cries of despair and exhaustion, which tell us the turmoil of a fringe of the more important of the population who won. The scenes of violence, dramatic sometimes, are inexcusable but to demonstrate the virulence of the call for help they send, and the exasperation of not being heard by the political power.
arab Spring and French revolution
This appeal of the yellow vests evokes in us the one of the red bonnets in Brittany who had blocked roads in the region, after the establishment of a right of toll for the use of the road network. Further still, and all things considered, this call brings us back also to the arab spring of 2010, the causes of which are similar, purchasing power decreased, insecurity on the increase and disinterest of the policy. I dare not imagine what would be the reaction of the population to the rise in cost of food due to poor harvests linked to weather events, damaging as the drought of this summer. The revolution of 1789 began in similar conditions.
The risk of a transition-violent
yellow Vests, red caps, two situations of transition in which we feel, even vaguely, that a world goes, that another world is born. Here, by increasing taxes on the fuels and the taxation of the use of the road, it is to initiate the necessary ecological transition and energy towards a low-carbon society” made necessary by the dramatic consequences of global warming. It is the first step in the process of adaptation, and already the citizens are revolting. What will he be when it will engage on the steps that are more ambitious? The transition may be violent and, seen from here, the path to a low-carbon society” seems undermined. The first warnings come to be given. Implicitly, the message is clear. We will make the journey together, and in the social cohesion, or there will be damage caused by those who feel abandoned on the down-side.
The transition is not the iniquity ecological
The policy, if he understood the warning, is now obliged to show responsibility and courage. It must define the path to take and the measures to be implemented in a real concern for equity. The time point measurements are based on only the middle class and the people must be gone. The solution does not lie in the iniquity ecological.
To cope with the challenges of climate change, restoring biodiversity while maintaining decent living conditions for all, there are building enormous that we expect. Transport, housing and production of agricultural, industrial and energy, distribution, establishment of various infrastructures. All economic functions are to be rethought in the “low-carbon” or even “zero carbon”.
The triangle of infernal public finance
It is necessary to quickly mobilize financial resources gigantic as for the public sector to the private sector. Where is the money? Increase the taxes on citizens? Decrease social spending? The yellow vests we have already announced the result! Increase taxes and fees on businesses? This is the opposite of what has been practiced in recent years! Fight tax fraud? This is the cream pie recurring of ministers of the Budget! The privatization of public policy? This is to increase the cost! On debt in the State? The burden of debt is unbearable!
The State is a prisoner of the constraints of the triangle of infernal of public finances: budget constraint rejecting all forms of excessive deficit, tax constraint that prevents a harmonisation of the tax (including on business) at the european level, constrained monetary the central bank is prohibited to finance the the States.
We must at the same time, at the same time, investing massively in the ecological transition and, at the same time, make the contention-based budget constraints! Invested and compresses your expense!! Schizophrenic, no?
The transition to monetary
We must free ourselves from this system of constraints. This is what the government is populist Italian claims when it gives the european Commission a budget proposal for excessive deficit. He says he will not meet the budget constraint because it is the only constraint on which it can exert a (small) action. And in fact, its approach is not related to global warming. For my part, I plead for more flexibility in the constraint on monetary.
The central Bank must be able to finance the ecological transition of States. It must have three means lights:
–The partial or total cancellation of the debt of the States, she had to buy-out the commercial banks for the bail out after the crisis of 2008. If applicable, this debt can be converted into perpetual debt at zero rates.
–The granting of long-term loans without interest to the States.
–The issuance of a limited stock of money permanently granted to the States.
This proposal is facing an abrupt end to the dogma of monetary classic. But without entering into a discussion on the legitimacy or not of this dogma, the ecological urgency and the social cohesion we require to give the public the means to make the investments for the common good. Except demonstration to the contrary, it appears to me that the transition money is inherent to the ecological transition. It must also be accompanied by a financial transition to the private financial sector to finance the ecological transition of the private sector in ensuring its sustainability and its stability.
The black shirts: a fateful omen
A failure to finance the ecological transition, the busy streets yesterday by the red caps, today by the yellow vests will be tomorrow occupied by… the black shirts. Baneful omen! The yellow vests to be thanked that we have opportunely recalled the danger.