Over the past year, the Central Bank lowered the key rate from 7.75 to 6.25% per annum. Followed the most favorable rate of ruble deposits for the population at large banks fell from 8-8,25% to 6-6. 5%. The yield of deposits in dollars fell to 1-1. 7%, in Euro – up to 0.1% under the influence including lowering interest rates the U.S. Federal reserve to 1.5–1.75% and Deposit rates of the ECB to minus 0.5%.
According to the Bank, by December issued rate mortgages decreased by 0.47 percentage points (PP) to 9.19% and the weighted average loan rates for the population for a period of 1 year by 0.82 PPT to 15.13%.
In 2020 trend towards lower rates will remain the same, although not for all products and not as rapidly as in 2019, according to respondents, “Vedomosti” experts.
According to them, in the first half, the Central Bank will gradually lower its key rate and by mid-year it will reach 5.75 per cent. This will contribute to low inflation: according to the forecast of the chief economist BCS Global Markets, Vladimir Tikhomirov, by February it may reach 2.5% year on year, and in the future three months – 2-2,3%. Another factor is the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate in 2020 could emerge in the interval of 55-60 rubles per dollar, adds chief economist at Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova. On Wednesday, President Vladimir Putin said about the upcoming increase in social spending, including maternity capital, children’s benefits. “The possibility of a substantial increase in budget spending will have a noticeable impact on inflation dynamics and policy of the regulator in relation to the key rate. However, the long-term trend of a fall in interest rates in the economy remains”, – said head of Bank ratings NKR Mikhail Doronkin.
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