2019 was worthy of investors held it with a glass of champagne, counting earned. And they have earned good: contrary to expectations of a global recession, stock markets of different countries have added 15-30%, feodosiev professional and individual investors in Russia and abroad. Most of them hope for the continued growth, albeit less rapid, and in the coming year.
Hope for the continuation of the festival, as this year, Central banks.
According to analysts, they will retain a soft monetary policy that will support stock markets. Besides, the world economy looks better than it seemed back in the fall. The probability of a global recession in the next 12 months asset managers is estimated at about 40%, showed a survey by Absolute Strategy Research (ASR), just three months ago the pessimists were 53%. The IMF is waiting in 2020 acceleration of growth in global GDP from 3% to 3.4%. “About a recession nobody has yet said. While everyone understands that we are at the end of the growth cycle, – talked in November at the Financial forum of “Vedomosti” managing Director of JPMorgan in Russia and the CIS Konstantin Akimov. – This means that soon the recession will happen than not happen, but the assessment of the near future has greatly improved.”
However, investors ‘ expectations on the growth markets may not be justified: the geopolitical risks are too unpredictable, trading in a war, the US and China are not excluded aggravation. And the presidential campaign in the USA is a incubator “black swans”, warns the General Director of “Sputnik – capital management” Alexander Losev. Finally, the impeachment of the President of the United States Donald Trump becomes quite real: the solution of it has already passed Congress, but the final decision remains with the Senate, where a majority of the members of the trump. These factors will support high volatility in the market, says portfolio Manager UK “Raiffeisen capital” Sofia Kirsanova, advising investors in the coming year “a little more to take in politics.” The inflow of liquidity will push stock markets up, but the risks will keep global growth, investment strategist concludes “BKS the Prime Minister” Alexander Bakhtin: “it is likely that we will have a year of growth, but not so generous as 2019”.
In such circumstances, experts advise nonprofessional investors as last year, to take measures to protect your money is to strengthen the portfolio of a reliable fixed income instruments, shares of defensive sectors, investment-ready products with limited or zero risk. To make offers on individual investment ideas.
portfolio Structure is always dependent on available funds, investment horizon, goals and attitude towards risk. “The simple principle in the allocation between stocks and bonds is a reference to age: the younger the investor, the longer the horizon and higher risk tolerance,” says Bakhtin. The share of bonds in the portfolio corresponds to age – for example, 40% for a person 40 years. “But in the current environment an even more conservative approach – the bond must be at least half of the portfolio” – be careful it.
In 2020 to private investors is to gradually reduce the share of fairly overweight stocks and to switch attention to the debt securities of developing countries, says analyst CC “Finam” Sergey Drozdov. The General partner of Matrix Capital Pavel Teplukhin supports attachments of 5-10 years in the stock portfolio, when the investment period year or 3-5 years must be greater than the proportion of bonds.
international financial consultant Isaac Becker is confident that shares should not occupy more than 30% of a balanced portfolio. An even more conservative approach non-professional investor with moderate risk appetite recommendthe et General Director UK “BSPP capital” Dmitry Shagardin: 80% of investments in bonds and Eurobonds, 20% in stocks, and not only in Russian. “In a well-balanced and diversified long-term portfolio you can gradually increase the share of gold and defensive assets,” he offers.
we should Not forget about the currency diversification. Since the beginning of 2019, the dollar against the ruble fell by 7.3%, Euro – by 10.4%. What will happen next – will determine difficult to predict oil prices and state budget expenditure on national projects. On the world market the U.S. dollar is likely to become cheaper with lower interest rates, predicting large investment banks, qualifies this by adding that in 2019 it never happened. And in the case of global shocks that dollar will be the main beneficiary among the currencies, says Drozdov.
the Currency to be used for portfolio diversification to increase its resistance to exchange rate fluctuations, but not to earn on them, experts warn. “The most versatile option – a basket, 50% of which goes to the ruble and 50% for other currencies: dollar, Euro, Swiss franc,” says Bakhtin. In this case, according to him, irrespective of currency volatility in the ruble equivalent will be maintained.
a Classic defensive asset in the period of uncertainty or in the event of the collapse of stock markets – gold. In 2019, it has risen more than 15% with a local maximum $1530 per Troy ounce in late August. According to the head of advanced research of the Julius Baer Carsten Menke, resolution of trade conflict the United States and China and the improved Outlook for growth in global GDP can in the short term have a negative impact on the gold market, but in the second half of the year, global economic growth will slow, which will support demand for gold. Given the expected weakening of the dollar value of an ounce to exceed $1550 waiting for it.
For risk diversification to 2020 the precious metals must hold at least 10% of the portfolio, the head of Sberbank Investment Research Yaroslav Lissovolik, in the case of expectations of rising prices for precious metals, their share can increase to 25%. Sberbank Investment Research predicts that in 2020 the price per Troy ounce will remain $1,500, which is higher than the average rating 2019 – $1390. Analysts of the Bank “URALSIB” believe that in 2020 an ounce of gold would cost about $1480. And IAC senior analyst “Alpari” Anna Bodrov waiting for prices in the range of $1400-1600 at a stable situation on global markets and growth to $1850 if investors urgently need a defensive asset. “Gold is an investment for the patient, with a horizon of at least five years, and for investment purchases have to wait for the return of quotations to $1250-1350,” she says.
to take the Risk in Russian
If in 2020 the global economic slump will not happen, the stock market may surprise investors, analysts expect. A favorite of many professional players left the Russian market: companies pay high dividends, a shares cheaper than their foreign counterparts. In addition to the relative cheapness of the Russian market will support the continued reduction of interest rates, flow of local investors from deposits and fixed income instruments in stock, as well as the stability of the macroeconomic situation indicates the portfolio Manager of the criminal code “Alfa capital” Edward Harin. Many Russian stocks remain undervalued compared with foreign counterparts, said the head of Department of investment products Sova Capital Georgiy Mayorov. The safest, although not the most lucrative option is to invest in index Mosberg, buying, for example, BPIF or ETFs, he suggests.
nevertheless, to create a portfolio of the best of the separate tools, said Kirsanov. According to her, cautious investors pwill otoydut companies with low multiples and high dividend yields, aggressive – the shares of cyclical sectors, in particular industry: the interest in it since the beginning of the trade wars has fallen seriously, providing not only a significant potential for growth, and high dividend yield.
the Largest Russian companies are a large part of the profit is given to dividends and the expected dividend yield on the index of Mosuri for the next year exceeds the yield of OFZ bonds on the entire curve and is comparable to the yield of corporate securities (e.g., index IFX-Cbonds), says chief analyst at Promsvyazbank Michael Poddubsky. According to Bloomberg, expected dividend yield of Gazprom – of 6.65%, X5 Retail Group, which is 4.15%, MTS – of 9.38%, Sberbank – of 6.63%, “Norilsk Nickel” – 8,58%, lists the majors.
According to the forecasts of Morgan Stanley, by 2020 the average dividend yield of Russian shares will reach 8.4 percent, more and more companies are paying big dividends on a clear and understandable formulas, and told the Director of the investment Department UK “Aton-management” Evgenie Malyhin. Its a top idea – “Gazprom”, “Norilsk Nickel” and LUKOIL. Aton evaluates their growth potential, 23, 19 and 18%, respectively, expected dividend yield for 2019 is 6.7 and 10.7, and 8.4%. Among the favorites of the head of IAC “Alpari” Alexander Razuvaeva in addition to “Gazprom” and “Surgutneftegaz” have accumulated $51 billion
the Executive Director of “VTB capital investments” Vladimir Potapov preference shares of companies focused on domestic demand from telecommunications, banking, retail, industry. “In these sectors is expected rapid growth of earnings per share,” he predicts. The Director of analytical Department IK “Region” Valery Weisberg in 2020 offers to bet on Sberbank and NOVATEK, assessing the return on investment of 20-25% and 15-20%, respectivelybut. Harin believes that the substantial interest of the company with ruble revenues and a high level of dividends (MTS, FSK, “Yunipro”, “RusHydro”). The head of Department of market analysis “Opening broker” Konstantin Bushuyev of liquid securities like stocks of Sberbank and Tatneft, as well as “ALROSA”, “RAO”, UC Rusal, RusHydro, AFK “System” and “Children of the world”.
with regard to foreign countries, many analysts believe the us stock market is preferable to the European one. America continues to feel obviously better than other countries, American business is still “generates” a good profit, said the head of the analytical centre “Saint Petersburg exchange” Pavel Pakhomov. Analysts IAC Alpari are confident that before the US presidential elections, turmoil in the markets will not be like the escalation of trade disputes the United States and China. The main challenge before the administration of the trump, to save “the beautiful picture” before the election, said Pakhomov.
According to the observations of Bakhtin, in 2019 in the us market was the extremely high concentration of funds placed in a limited number of blue chips. So in 2020 he expects high growth rates of individual companies that are “not hearing”. It supports the head of global stock markets UK the “System capital” Nikita Yemelyans: “China and the United States come to a consensus on the trade deal, solved the situation with the Brexit, the United States and Europe are recovering the index of business activity, so if the investment horizon of around a year, to enter the market should wait for a correction of about 5% from the highs of 2019 as good news is already incorporated in the prices of securities and markets slightly overheated”. Those who are willing to invest for a longer period of time, you should think about the companies of small and average capitalization. “In the first half of the year dynamics of the index small capitalization Russell 2000 can significantly outperform the S&P 500. In particular, there are many interesting stories among the developers of the software (Hubspot, Nutanix, Zendesk, Splunk) – said Emelyanov. – And in six months it will be possible to reconsider the position and to return to a shares of blue chip”. Malykhin distinguishes among foreign stock paper chemical companies, including Dow Chemical and LyondellBasell, and companies associated with the development of 5G: Skyworks Solutions, Marvell Technology, etc. And Pakhomov – shares of the biotechnology sector.
But in Asian stocks, you should invest with caution, warns the majors: “a Trade war, the standoff in Hong Kong, limited reporting companies and a strong debt load in China and defaults of large companies, these factors, given the already high volatility of Asian markets can present higher risks for investors in the coming year.”
for Those who trust in the stock “guru”, Becker recommends in 2020 to pay special attention to Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway. She has accumulated $128,2 billion, which can be used to purchase depreciating securities in the event of a collapse in the market. “This will give the company a huge advantage for the next 3-5 years, maybe longer,” says Becker.
Becker, and President of investment group “Moscow partners” Eugene Kogan (in his Telegram-channel) pay attention to the completion of a major correction in the sector of companies engaged in the cultivation and processing of cannabis, and the production from it of medicines. But this idea is only for those who are willing to take a chance for big earnings, warns Becker.
Much will debt
it is Unlikely that in 2020 the debt markets will continue to grow at the same rate in 2019, analysts say, nevertheless they make is still, primarily corporate securities and bonds of emerging markets.
In 2019 bonds offered investors 13-15% per annum, says the portfolio Manager of the criminal code “Alfa capital” Eugene Earnest. This is due to the decrease of returns after the key rate of the Central Bank. In 2020 it may be reduced from 6.25 to 5.5–6% according to various forecasts, which will further support the ruble debt market. “In 2020, we can see a more significant decline rates than the Bank and market expectations: inflation is already significantly below the target range of the Central Bank, and at the beginning of 2020 will be in the region of 2.5% – said Lissovolik. In these conditions, the yield of ruble bonds will continue to decline”.
“the Ruble is more likely to appreciate against hard currencies, which also makes bonds an attractive investment,” says Earnest, but he prefers not to bet on the overall growth of the debt market, and gives preference to the individual debts are underestimated in the second and third tier and moderate duration.
the Best ratio of risk and income option investments in government bonds – Federal loan bonds with repayment in 5-10 years, says the head of the Directorate of analysis of debt tools of Bank “URALSIB” Olga Sterol on them in the coming year investors can earn 9,3–9,4% due to the growth of prices and coupons (without reinvestment), if the key rate will fall by 50 basis points, 5-10-year bonds will rise in price but in the case of force majeure and growth yields of these securities is “not hurt”, adds Deputy CEO at active operations IK “Veles the capital” Evgenie Shilenkov. To actively increase the proportion of OFZ in the portfolio it advises, but already purchased need to save.
third quarter, the key rate will reach 5.5%, while the yield of OFZ can fall by another 30-40 basis points: up to 5.6–5.75 per cent on three-year securities and up to 6-6,15%, 10-year-old, waiting for the Executive Director of the Department of analysis of market conditions of Gazprombank Andrey ColacoV. He advises in the first half to take positions in long OFZs, which will provide the highest gross income due to price changes and coupon income, but the yield will be fixed at these levels, stay long the papers would not make sense.
Analysts suggest that corporate bonds can be more profitable for BFL, because they will go up faster. Favorites “URALSIB” bonds “Tinkoff” with the offer in September 2022 (the yield to put – 7.7% per annum), VEB maturing in June 2023 (6,9%), Evraz maturing in July 2024 (7,25%), AFK “System” with the offer in October 2029 (7.9 per cent), the retailer’s “okay” to an offer in April 2022 (8%). Among Eurobonds of Russian companies of Sterols allocates dollar paper IBC (senior issue) maturing in 2024 (4.9% per annum), Eurobonds of MMK maturing in 2024 (3%), “Poles” maturing in 2023 (3,1%).
Analysts also recommend developing debt markets, where yields are significantly higher than in the US and Europe. For example, Eurobonds of Indonesia (the yield on 10-year securities in local currency adjusted for inflation 4,1%), the Philippines (3.8 percent). Among corporate bonds of developing countries, too much undervalued, said the head of the Department of securities with fixed yield UK “Sberbank asset management” Renat Malines. He recommends bonds infrastructure Transnet SOC chemical and Sasol from South Africa, Turkish Telecom, Turkcell and Turk Telekomunikasyon AS, the Brazilian Petrobras.
regardless of the investment strategy, analysts urge caution and to follow the policy. Financial markets have become too dependent on politicians, says Pakhomov, and they are unpredictable, while money likes silence and predictability.