Bad news for beer-lovers: as a result of climate change, the drink could become scarce and more expensive. In the case of an uncontrolled increase in the temperatures, the beer prices would double the world average, according to research published in the journal “Nature Plants”. Responsible for the frequent co – Occurrence of periods of heat and drought during the growth period of barley, which would shorten the range of the Brauzutat.
“The world is facing numerous life-threatening effects of climate change; a little more beer money to spend, will appear in view of this, perhaps trivial,” says study leader Steven Davis of the University of California, Irvine (USA). “But there is definitely a cross-cultural appeal of beer, and to get on the end of a increasingly typically hot day, no cold beer, would make the Whole thing worse.”
susceptibility of barley to extreme weather events analyzed
The team of researchers that Davis had first determined on the Basis of historical data, the vulnerability of barley to extreme weather. Then they examined how often and under different climate scenarios for the Future occur at the same time extreme heat and drought and the impact it is having on the harvest volumes in 34 regions of the world. They take account of the development between 2010 and 2099. The result: on average, the crop yields would fall by 3 to 17 percent depending on the scenario.
In 2011, about 17 percent of the world’s barley-harvest in the production of beer, wherein there are between individual countries, extreme fluctuations, the scientists report. In Brazil, there were about 83 per cent, and in Australia only 9. With declining harvest volume, the availability of barley is expected to fall to Brew a disproportionately high, the researchers write, because the grain is all over the advance would be used for other more important purposes, such as animal feed.
Under the most extreme climatic changes in countries such as Belgium, the Czech Republic or Germany, the losses have threatened the availability of barley from 27 to 38 percent. At the same time would drive the price of beer significantly in the height, namely the average double. Even under a less severe temperature rise is to be expected, the analysis shows that with an increase of 15 percent.
Rising beer prices are likely to rise for many “bad health risk wine and beer – feel” already harmful from the first glass
For Germany, the researchers calculated a decrease of consumption from 0.74 to 2.55 billion liters annually, from the least to the most accepted temperature. This would correspond to a decline in per capita consumption from 18 to 63 half-liter bottles in the year.
“You could argue that it is not particularly bad, if less beer is drunk, but even good for health,” says Dabo Guan, one of the researchers from the University of East Anglia in Norwich (UK). Nevertheless, little doubt that the climate is likely to impact on the availability and the price of beer for millions of people in the world, bad to the touch.
The researchers restrict their study has insecurities and weaknesses. So, for instance, no conceivable adjustments are taken into account, which could stabilize the harvest, even in times of climate change, such as new technologies or the use of adapted varieties. All estimates were based on current data for the world economy, population, agricultural practices or food habits. The growth of the world’s population is expected to let the beer needs, however, according to the researchers more likely to rise.
mod / DPA