What will the new decade: protectionism, debt, inflation

In ending the decade there were many turning points, there are new trends and technologies – from income inequality and climate change, as a conscious existential problems, to electric vehicles, automation, artificial intelligence and cryptanalyst.

In the coming decade, these trends originated may be issued and become a part of our life, changing her; to solve the most pressing problems can be found new approaches; trends can change radically.

“Vedomosti” published a series of articles with analysis of possible major changes in a number of areas.

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After the crisis of 2008-2009 and the Eurozone debt crisis in the early 2010s major concern about stimulating the economy assumed the Central banks. 768 declines in interest rates in the world in 2009 and $12.4 trillion purchased financial assets contributed to the unprecedented cost of credit (interest rates, as far as we know, are at the lowest level in human history) and an increase in debt – to historic highs. But to accelerate the pace of economic growth and inflation to pre-crisis levels failed. Almost deflation was the result of another megatrend: in 1981, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds reached 16%, and in the years 2012-2019 three times fallen below 1.5%.

In many developing countries, inflation has fallen to historically low values, but the growth was not so rapid as in the 1990s and 2000s, the Latter in particular for China, whose GDP growth rate fell from double-digitx values up to 6%.

Baton stimulus from monetary policy starts to take on fiscal. Mindful of the continued ultra-low rates, there are various experiments, including an unprecedented – from the introduction of the unconditional basic income, spreading and increasing the minimum wage to the borrowing of money by governments directly from Central banks and negative taxation. And while many fear japanization the global economy (low inflation and growth for a long time), rising costs and the need because of the high debt burden to keep rates low may actually trigger an acceleration of inflation.

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