Ootsubo Yusuke, a Japanese financier who long worked in Russia, in his article for the JB Press called the reason for the incredible durability of the Russian economy during the global crisis and pandemics.
it’s All in the sanctions, said Ootsubo, who heads the investment company UMJ. In his opinion, the Russian economy since the imposition of U.S. sanctions and the EU in 2014, hardened and adapted to the difficult conditions, increased resilience to economic shocks.
the Russian government over the last 5 years of action of sanctions has reduced the dependence of the economy on imports and the dollar, created a national welfare Fund to support the country in crisis, increased investment attractiveness of working in Russia: on the order of a superior business climate, many sectors receive government support in the import substitution program. Russia over the past 10 years has sharply risen in the world ranking of the business climate — 28th place in the rating of the world Bank group’s Doing Business. In 2012 Russia was on the 120th place.
Therefore, during a pandemic, Russia’s economy was better adapted to the restrictions, said Ootsubo. The economies of the countries of the European Union and the United States was more involved in the globalization, migration, inter-state logistics flow of goods. This has led to the rapid spread of the virus. In the end, the EU and the United States lost more from international restrictions in isolation.
After the end of the pandemic, Russia is recovering faster and more attracts the attention of investors. This applies to direct investments, and investments in the country’s public debt. The proportion of foreigners in the Russian government bonds is 30 percent and has not changed during a pandemic. This is a very good measure of economic stability and confidence of foreign investors to the Russian government, said a Japanese economist.
Almost two-fold drop in oil prices has halted the economic growth, but did not stop Russian exports. Moreover, some companies were able to increase SupplKi abroad during a pandemic. As a result, Russia may recover faster after a battle with coronavirus, said Ootsubo.
Russia’s GDP in 2020 will decrease by 6% to an 11-year low, predicts the world Bank. According to him, if there is no significant second wave of the pandemic, Russia’s GDP is expected to grow to 2021 2.7% 2022 and later in the year, growth will accelerate to 3.1%. National plan for the recovery of the Russian economy, the government aims at GDP growth of at least 2.5% by the end of 2021, the reduction of unemployment to 5% and the increase in real incomes. Assessment European Investment Monitor (EIM), an international consulting company EY, this year 99% of projects of foreign direct investment in Russia will be implemented despite the pandemic.